A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
