Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
